[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190607
SWODY2
SPC AC 190606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
ECG 50 SSW RIC 50 ESE LYH LYH 30 NW DCA 30 NNE ABE 25 SW PSF 20 SSE
ORH 15 SSE EWB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
FMY 25 NNE MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SJC 60 NNE SAC
35 WSW WMC 55 SSE BYI 55 ENE EVW 45 E RWL 55 SSE DGW 30 S CDR 30 W
VTN 50 SSE 9V9 30 SE YKN 25 WSW FNB 15 E SLN 20 NE DDC 40 NW GAG 25
ENE AMA 20 NW TCC ABQ 60 NNW SVC 10 S DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SAV 25 E DHN
30 SW LUL 20 SW ESF 45 NW LFK 40 SSW PRX 20 SE MLC 40 ESE HRO 35 NNE
POF 55 WNW LUK 30 W MFD 40 NE CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SRN FL INCLUDING THE
KEYS...

...NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WILL
RESULT IN A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON TUESDAY.  40-60 KT OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO VA WITH THE STRONGER FLOW LOCATED OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND REGION.  AT 12Z TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER SERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY.  THE LOW WILL TRACK ENE
TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED FROM ERN VA/MD NEWD INTO FAR ERN
PA/NJ...WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE POTENTIAL MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING
A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PA/NJ AND SWD INTO
ERN VA/MD AS THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.  

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN
THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE ACROSS THIS
AREA.

...SRN FL...
OFFICIAL NHC/TPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA WILL BE A HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS WWD JUST SOUTH OF THE FL KEYS INTO THE SERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITHIN CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND
PARTS OF SRN FL. 

...TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
NRN GULF COAST STATES AND PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THIS REGION...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WEAK UPPER FORCING/DEEP SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM.

...CENTRAL/SRN CA INTO NV AND WRN UT/AZ...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CA
ON TUESDAY.  AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR VALUES SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND WRN AZ.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 09/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.