[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120603
SWODY2
SPC AC 120602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
AUW 15 E ESC 10 SSE PLN 20 N HTL 40 NE GRR 30 ESE CGX 10 N BMI 25
NNE SPI 35 SW STL 40 SW TBN 40 WSW MKO 45 ESE OKC 30 N CDS 10 NNE
AMA 25 ENE CAO 45 S LAA 30 ESE LAA 35 NNW GCK 50 NE DDC 15 NW HUT 20
SE MHK 40 W LWD 45 ESE FOD 25 S RST 25 NNW RST 10 WSW EAU 30 NNW
AUW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PBI 20 ENE GNV
40 N SAV 10 NNW GSB 20 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TOL 15 NNE LUK
30 SW SDF 15 SSW PAH 20 SSW POF 25 WSW LIT 15 N PRX 40 WNW MWL 40 W
ABI 60 SW SJT 15 S FST 10 WNW INK 50 W CVS 20 NE LVS 35 N ALS 15 SW
ASE 25 NE CAG 20 E LAR 20 W SNY 25 WNW MCK 45 SW EAR 15 SE EAR 25
NNE GRI 40 W YKN 25 SE 9V9 50 NNW VTN 20 NE CDR 60 ENE DGW 20 N CPR
35 NE RIW 25 WNW WRL 35 NE COD 35 ENE BIL 20 NE MLS 30 SSE GDV 35 NW
DIK 25 ENE MOT 65 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S.
ON TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF 40-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW ARCING CYCLONICALLY
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE
WITHIN THIS BAND OF STRONG FLOW....FROM SWRN KS TO NRN WI. THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE PRECEEDED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/WIND SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SRN PLAINS. AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM NRN MO/IA
TO LOWER MI/IND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF
THE FRONT...FROM KS/OK ACROSS SRN MO/NWRN AR...WILL SAG SLOWLY SWD
BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT WLY FLOW ALOFT.

LATEST TPC TRACK FORECAST FOR OPHELIA HAS THE HURRICANE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER ERN NC LATE IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD...WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE CIRCULATION COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF
SERN NC WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPING BEFORE THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES...
DIURNAL HEATING OF ABUNDANTLY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
LATEST NAM FORECASTING MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FROM OK TO WI
AND POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY QUITE LIKELY IN AREAS RECEIVING
GREATER INSOLATION. A FEW TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY
ALONG THE EDGES OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY INITIATING NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE THE DAY BEFORE. SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON BOTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND EXPECT
CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS TO RESULT
IN SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. LOCALLY ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR INVOF OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTIONS COULD LEAD
TO AREAS WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE DEFINED BY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR REPEAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AFTER DARK AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THIS AREA FROM NM/CO. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR A SEVERE MCS OR TWO FROM CO/KS SEWD
INTO OK.

..CARBIN.. 09/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.