[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111727
SWODY2
SPC AC 111726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
MQT 10 S LSE 30 SSW MCW 60 NE OMA 10 WNW BIE 15 SSW HSI 20 SSE BBW
35 NE AIA 50 NE DGW 25 SE 81V 55 ESE REJ 35 NW ABR 30 SE FAR 35 SSE
BJI 45 NNW ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW GDP 65 W CVS 25
NW EHA 10 W MCK 35 NW IML 45 NW 4FC 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC
15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE
WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15
NNE RRT ...CONT... 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 25 E
P35 MKC 25 W CNU 15 ESE END 20 NW SPS 55 NE ABI BWD 20 SSW TPL 20
SSE CLL 15 N HOU 25 SSE BPT ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW
AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING WRN STATES UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN
WAVE LATE TONIGHT-MON. AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN
TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY ALONG WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  NUMEROUS JETLETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS SRN CANADA TONIGHT AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR A MCS ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY LATER TONIGHT.  AT LEAST
TWO MORE DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
LATER MON-MON NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD
IN WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE AUGMENTED BY THE MN MCS
FROM SRN MN WWD TO  ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER.  A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTN...THEN MOVE NEWD
INTO CNTRL MN BY MON NIGHT WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH SWD
INTO W TX.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE
TSTMS.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY...
BROAD WARM SECTOR ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE ON MON. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE RECENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEAKER AS THE
LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED
TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THE DAY. 
BUT...AS THE CAP BECOMES BREACHED...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND MN MID-LATE AFTN.  THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH STRONGER BULK SHEAR 
POLEWARD OF THE FRONT. THUS...TSTMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE
SEGMENTS AND MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL.  TO THE N OF THE FRONT...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL
BE LOCATED...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE
STRONGEST OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMERGES OVER ERN WY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY THE BLACK
HILLS...AND COULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY
THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
09Z ENSEMBLES AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
BE QUITE STRONG VCNTY THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX
MON AFTN.  SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO GRAZE THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING AND MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLD TSTMS.  AROUND 35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WOULD
MAINLY BE OF MULTICELL VARIETY...BUT STILL PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

..RACY.. 09/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.