[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121735
SWODY2
SPC AC 121734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
ESC PLN HTL GRR SGF OKC CSM AMA CAO 55 N CAO 35 SSE LAA DDC SLN 10 W
ESC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 50 NNW CHS
FAY 30 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE MTC TOL IND CGI
PGO ADM SPS 70 S CDS 60 SW SJT 30 SSE FST MRF CVS 40 SW CAO 40 WSW
RTN PUC 65 SW MLD PIH IDA 40 E WEY MLS DIK BIS 45 SE BIS 25 SSE MBG
PHP CDR BFF AKO 40 SSW GLD 40 S HLC RSL CNK INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO LM
AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED PRIMARILY BY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS SRN CA. 
MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL INCLUDE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN
UT/SERN ID -- FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS MN EARLY IN
PERIOD...AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER ALBERTA AND PACIFIC NW.  ALBERTA TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD
THEN EWD ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER STATES.  MEANWHILE NWRN TROUGH WILL
DIG SEWD TOWARD GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO
SOME GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL THERE VIA COOLING ALOFT...STEEPENED
DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE.

BROAD BELT OF SELYS ALOFT WILL OVERLIE SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST
TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS.  BY
MID-AFTERNOON...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT DECELERATING FRONT OVER
TX/OK PANHANDLES AND EXTEND SSWWD TOWARD SERN NM.

...GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL/SRN LOW PLAINS...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EVENING
INVOF SFC FRONT.  SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WEAKLY ANAFRONTAL REGIME
AS BAROCLINIC ZONE DRIFTS SEWD BENEATH SWLY MEAN FLOW IN MID-UPPER
LEVELS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE MODE EACH WILL BE LIMITED BY ORIENTATION OF SFC FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO WINDS ALOFT...AND BY LACK OF PRONOUNCED SFC
CYCLONE TO ISALLOBARICALLY FORCE BACKING OF WARM-SECTOR INFLOW. 
EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S/LOW 70S F IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF
FRONT...COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
100-1500 J/KG IN GREAT LAKES AREA...INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG
INVOF KS/OK BORDER.  STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND LARGEST HAIL THREAT
MAY BE INVOF SRN END OF FRONT...WHILE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LARGER FARTHER NE.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT
RANGE AND RATON MESA AREAS DURING AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD ONTO
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BEHIND
FRONT -- FROM CENTRAL/SRN CO SEWD TOWARD SWRN KS -- ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS
LIKELY IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR SHOULD BE
POSTFRONTAL DRY ADVECTION AND RESULTANT WEAKNESS OF SFC MOISTURE. 
DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF WINDOW OF SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 
LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF
THIS AREA ATM.

...ERN NC...
MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH TS OPHELIA
-- N THROUGH NE OF CENTER -- MAY BRUSH ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NC BASED
ON LATEST NHC FCST TRACK.  MAIN LIMITING FACTORS SHOULD BE SMALL
COVERAGE OF FAVORED SECTOR ON LAND...AND WEAK INSTABILITY AMIDST
NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.  MESOBETA SCALE FACTORS WILL
MOST STRONGLY INFLUENCE STRENGTH OF MIDDLE-OUTER BAND CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED TORNADO OR GUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS OF
ENHANCED/DIFFERENTIAL SFC DIABATIC HEATING CAN DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY
CLOUD FREE AREAS BETWEEN BANDS.  SUCH SMALL SCALE DETAILS ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN ATTM TO WARRANT MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.