[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 110625
SWODY2
SPC AC 110624

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
MQT 10 S LSE 30 SSW MCW 50 NNE OMA 20 WNW LNK 20 SSE HSI 40 SW HSI
25 NNE IML 30 NNW SNY 55 W BFF 30 ESE DGW 55 S 81V 40 WNW RAP 15 WSW
PHP 10 WSW PIR 55 NNE ATY 45 NW BRD 45 NNW ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW P07 35 NNW 4CR
LVS 30 NNW TAD 10 NW PUB 20 ESE CAG 30 W CAG 25 WNW VEL 50 SSE SLC
15 SSE DPG 25 W DPG 10 NNE ENV 25 SSE TWF 30 ENE SUN 35 W MQM 25 ENE
WEY 45 NNE COD 20 NNW SHR 30 ESE 4BQ 10 W Y22 35 W JMS 45 SE DVL 15
NNE RRT ...CONT... 20 ESE ANJ 40 NW TVC 25 ENE MTW 15 NE MSN 25 E
P35 MKC 25 W CNU 15 ESE END 20 NW SPS 55 NE ABI BWD 20 SSW TPL 20
SSE CLL 15 N HOU 25 SSE BPT ...CONT... 35 SSE SRQ 30 ESE VLD 50 SSW
AGS 20 N CAE 20 SW SOP 45 E RWI 30 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN AND TRANSITION ENEWD AS AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS...SEVERAL PACKETS OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE WITHIN A BELT OF STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. FIRST...A NRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN MCS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRAIL SWWD ACROSS MN/SD AND INTERSECT THE LEE TROUGH OVER NEB. AT
LEAST TWO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN
TROUGH WILL INDUCE WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TO MN DURING MONDAY. AN INITIAL MID/UPPER PERTURBATION
WILL ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM UT/WY TO THE
WRN DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

...SD/NEB TO THE UPPER MS VLY...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NCNTRL
PLAINS ON MONDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEB NEWD INTO MN. CAPPING ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL BE QUICKLY OVERCOME AS INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ATOP THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS SPREADING ENEWD
OVER PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS
STORM CLUSTERS IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO FORM INTO LINE
SEGMENTS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. ON AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND
NEAR WAVE CYCLONE...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE
COINCIDENT WITH ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...OR WITH STORMS TRACKING
PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE FRONT.

A SECONDARY AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE UPSTREAM
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER ERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RESULTING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS THIS AREA TO SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
EAST INTO WRN SD/NEB THROUGH THE EVENING AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..CARBIN.. 09/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.