[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101721
SWODY2
SPC AC 101721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
ELO 25 NNE BRD 40 W MSP 30 S RWF 30 SSW ATY 30 N ABR 30 W JMS 65 N
DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FHU 55 ESE SOW
30 NNE CEZ 65 WSW COS 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 55 ESE CDR 35 NE CDR RAP
25 S REJ 35 NE REJ 25 NNE Y22 15 SW BIS 65 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145
NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE
RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS
...CONT... 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE WRL 25 SSE LND
25 SSE EVW 35 N MLF 10 SSW P38 70 W DRA 45 SE BIH 45 SW BIH 60 S TVL
45 W RNO 15 N SVE 20 SE LMT 75 SE EUG 35 WNW RDM 45 E DLS 50 SSW S06
15 WNW 3DU 25 NNW LVM 35 SSW BIL 35 ENE WRL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS
AND NRN/WRN MN...

...ERN DAKS INTO NRN/WRN MN...
LARGE PAC NW UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES
SWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS IT FILLS...NRN
PORTIONS OF THE LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
STREAM...THEN BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD INTO CNTRL MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT.
 AS IT DOES SO...A FRONT...SITUATED FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
DAKS EARLY SUNDAY...WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD.  THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS...PRIMARILY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKS AND NRN/WRN MN.

PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  BUT...
THE STRONG PERSISTENT CAP IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED
INITIATION DURING THE AFTN.  WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING CANADIAN TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW/
MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LLJ MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN INHIBITION BY EVENING.
AS A RESULT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET VCNTY THE FRONT OVER
THE ERN DAKS/NWRN MN.  PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  

OVERALL SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN/WRN MN.  TSTMS CLUSTERS SHOULD BACKBUILD
INTO THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES TOWARD SWRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY.  THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  FARTHER N...TSTMS
MAY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF
THE MCS AND REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/LLJ.

..RACY.. 09/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.