[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100640
SWODY2
SPC AC 100639

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE
ELO 45 SSW DLH 30 NNW OTG 10 WNW HON 25 WSW ABR 45 SE JMS 15 ESE GFK
10 NW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TUS 65 NE PHX
30 NNE CEZ 65 WSW COS 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 55 ESE CDR 35 NE CDR RAP
25 S REJ 35 NE REJ 20 NE Y22 20 SSE BIS 50 WNW JMS 20 NW DVL 80 NNE
DVL ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 10 NNE RST 50 E SUX
15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW
20 E CLL GLS ...CONT... CTY 20 NW AYS 55 N SAV 15 NE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE WRL 25 ESE BPI
30 ESE OGD 35 WNW DPG 35 ENE U31 LOL 45 WNW SVE 10 NE MHS 70 SSE RDM
40 W BOI 40 SW 27U 30 SW BIL 35 ENE WRL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND
MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A POSITIVE-TILT
UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN CA INTO SCNTRL CANADA AND A DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EXTEND SW-NE FROM CO/WY TO NRN MN. SMALL SCALE AND GENERALLY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WRN TROUGH AND
RESULT IN ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT/SRN CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND PROMOTE NIGHTTIME MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTER BANDS OF OPHELIA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST TPC TRACK FORECASTS
SUGGEST LANDFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT TC TORNADO THREAT...MAY NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD.

...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN TO NRN MN...
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
BUT PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING MOST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY. APPROACH OF MT/SRN CANADA SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COUPLED
WITH INCREASE IN MASS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD ERADICATE MOST WARM SECTOR
INHIBITION BY EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
21Z SREF THAT STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12/03Z SUNDAY EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO SUGGEST THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF INITIAL
CONVECTION INTO AN MCS ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 09/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.