[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081720
SWODY2
SPC AC 081719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DBQ 30 E MLI
15 N LAF 20 NNE DAY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 55 NNW CSV 30 ENE DYR 40
NNW POF 35 WSW COU 15 E LWD 40 NNW DSM 25 WNW ALO 20 WNW DBQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S YUM 25 ESE LAS
55 NNW P38 40 SSW EKO 25 SW WMC 90 N WMC 20 NNE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80
SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK ...CONT... 40 NNW CMX 25 SSE DLH HON 30 WSW
LBF 10 SE TAD 30 NE ONM 30 S DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LRD 15 SSW NIR
25 SSW PSX ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 30 NNW GNV 15 WSW SSI 30 NE SSI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW...
A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ON FRI ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
WLYS DEVELOP SWD ATOP RESIDUAL MONSOON-RELATED MOISTURE. THE UPPER
LOW NW OF KSFO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW FRI AFTN/NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE.  BACKING
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAP A POOL OF
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE DESERTS...LIKELY
MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM UT SWD INTO AZ.  TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT AND NRN/CNTRL AZ
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MAIN WARM CONVEYER BELT WHERE INSOLATION
SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST FRI AFTN.  PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF H5 FLOW
ATOP MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
ORGANIZE AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD CO/NWRN NM BY FRI NIGHT. ISOLD TSTMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
EVOLUTION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON
FRI...WITH A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS
VLY.  THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY
DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET MIGRATES SEWD INTO THE
GRTLKS REGION. THIS MAY SUPPORT EARLY DAY TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN
MN THAT MAY YIELD HAIL.

FARTHER W...THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE DIGGING SWD SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS AS OPPOSED TO
EWD.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE LONGER OVER THE PLAINS AND
SLOW THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS FRI AFTN.  SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S TO MID/UPPER 60S BENEATH THESE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.  BUT...THE CAP WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED TSTMS.

HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH FROM
NERN CO INTO WRN SD. COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ERASE THE CAP AND ALLOW SURFACE BASED PARCELS
TO REACH LFC/S.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT...THOUGH DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER INSTABILITY AND...THEREFORE...A REDUCED THREAT FOR SEVERE
TSTMS.

OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG NRN/NERN
EDGE OF THE CAP WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LLJ.  A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL
ATTM FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..RACY.. 09/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.