[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080549
SWODY2
SPC AC 080548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DBQ 30 E MLI
15 N LAF 20 NNE DAY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 55 NNW CSV 35 SW PAH 30
SSE TBN 20 WSW COU 15 E LWD 40 NNW DSM 25 WNW ALO 20 WNW DBQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 55 WSW GCN
10 NW BCE U24 60 N ENV 20 WNW PIH 35 WNW IDA 15 WSW 27U 45 SW 3DU 20
N HLN 30 NNE GTF 45 NNW HVR ...CONT... 40 NNW CMX 25 SSE DLH HON 30
WSW LBF 10 SE TAD 30 NE ONM 30 S DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY 30 NNW GNV
15 WSW SSI 30 NE SSI ...CONT... 35 SSW LRD 15 SSW NIR 25 SSW PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EVOLUTION OF BROAD...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN W THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...SRN
STREAM LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN ND WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD
THROUGH AB/SK AND THE NRN ROCKIES.  A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST
FROM THIS LOW SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE CAP WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS
OWING TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF EJECTING GREAT BASIN
SYSTEM.  THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.

THE GREATEST LIKLIHOOD FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO INTO WRN SD WHERE STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD LOCALLY ERODE CAP.  PROXIMITY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL
REDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...POTENTIALLY LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

OTHER MORE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG NRN/NERN
EDGE OF THE CAP WITHIN INTENSIFYING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LLJ.  A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL
ATTM FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..MEAD.. 09/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.