[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071716
SWODY2
SPC AC 071715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
BKX 50 SW AXN 35 SE AXN 30 E MSP 15 E LSE 15 NNE MSN 25 N MMO 15 W
BMI 10 SE UIN 15 S P35 45 E OMA 35 E YKN 10 WSW BKX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W LRD 15 NW NIR 25
NNW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45 ENE
SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JFK 45 NE MKL
20 NNW ARG 10 NNE OJC 15 WSW HSI 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 25 NNW CAO 40
ENE 4CR 30 WSW TCS 35 NE TUS 60 WSW FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE YUM 45 WNW PRC
55 SSE PGA 25 NE U28 50 SE RKS 50 W CPR 40 SSE 81V 25 E SHR 40 NW
COD 10 N SUN 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW 4BK 10 NNW RDM
45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 30 N IWD 25
NNW GRR 40 NE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/MID
MO VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WRN U.S./WRN CANADA TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE ERN U.S. WILL ALSO
AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE WRN PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM THE OH VALLEY NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  WHILE
CONVECTION IS FORECAST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SUPPORTIVE OF APPRECIABLE
SEVERE THREAT IS ONLY ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT INVOF THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY REGION.

...SRN MN/IA/NRN MO/SWRN WI/NWRN IL...
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST
OF THE ROCKIES.  THOUGH AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON --
AND THOUGH BELT OF STRONGER/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND RIDGE
WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SEVERE
THREAT...CAPPING/INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

FURTHER E...WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
SEWD INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS.  WEAK SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE
MID MO VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUATION OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NE OF
FRONT...WHICH MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
AND LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS.  WITH 30 TO PERHAPS 40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW FORECAST AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS MAY YIELD THREAT FOR HAIL.  SHOULD STORM COVERAGE
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD NEAR SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD BE MORE SURFACE-BASED...ORGANIZATION INTO A SEWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTER/MCS ALONG BOUNDARY WOULD BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS ENHANCING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 09/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.