[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070555
SWODY2
SPC AC 070554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BKX 45
SW AXN STC 35 NE MSP 25 NNE VOK 25 SW OSH 15 NNE MKE 40 SE MKE 45
ESE MMO 30 W PIA 30 W BRL 40 W LWD 10 S OMA 20 NW SUX BKX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 40 WNW PRC
55 SSE PGA 30 SW 4BL 20 NW MTJ EGE 15 NW DEN 40 SSE LIC 15 NW CAO 45
NW TCC 35 NE 4CR 10 NW TCS 30 ESE SAD DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW 4BK 35 ESE OTH
70 SE EUG 35 ENE LMT 45 NNW SVE 45 SW SVE 35 ESE UKI 40 SSW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W RRT 45 N BRD 65
SSE DLH 20 N GRB 50 NNE GRR 15 SSE MBS 50 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 N EPM
20 W PWM 10 SSE PSF 25 SSE IPT 35 SSW HLG 35 WNW LUK 15 NW ALN 25
WNW SZL 15 NW MHK 10 SSW HSI 35 ESE ANW 30 NW MBG 70 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 15 NW NIR 35
NNE PSX GLS ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 30 NW GNV 20 NNW JAX 25 SSE SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER WRN
PARTS OF THE U.S. AND CANADA...WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING
EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND STRONGER...NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.  FATHER TO THE E...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREST CNTRL CONUS RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
THEN TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NERN
STATES WHILE SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND
NRN OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND NRN IA/SRN MN.

...MN/IA/WI/IL...

TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND
N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS...POSSIBLY SWD INTO THE
MID MO VALLEY WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
SWLY LLJ.  WHILE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MN/IA INTO SRN WI
AND IL IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WILL
DEVELOP S OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA.  PERSISTENT
SWLY LLJ WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A FEED OF THIS STRONG INSTABILITY INTO
WRN OR SWRN FLANK OF ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS.  WHEN COUPLED WITH THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. 
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH
A CONTINUING THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 09/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.