[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061725
SWODY2
SPC AC 061724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
81V 40 S MLS 40 WNW GDV 30 NE ISN 45 SW JMS 10 NNE HON 65 SSE 9V9 20
ENE GLD 50 W GLD 35 WSW AKO 55 S 81V.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 30 SW GFK
60 NNE ATY 25 WNW MKT 30 NW VOK 30 E APN ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 25 NW
MFD 20 ESE CMI 30 N COU 10 SSE ICT 40 NE AMA 50 S CVS 45 S ELP
...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 W INW 15 NNW GUP 30 ESE DRO 35 E ASE 45 NW
LAR 10 NNW BIL 50 NNE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CTY 35 ESE VLD
35 SW SAV 35 NE SAV 20 S CRE ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW NIR 35 NNE VCT 15
NW HOU 10 N BPT 15 SE LCH 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA WILL MOVE EWD INTO SERN
CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY THEN RETREAT NWD WEDNESDAY AS A LEE TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.


...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS EWD AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NW AS WRN SD WITH
50S INTO SERN MT AND SWRN ND. THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH
7.5-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 35 TO 40
KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO 35 OR 40 KT AT 6
KM WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS. ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...HEATING AND MIXING MAY WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS BY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS
ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE STRONGEST.


...GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER FLOW
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION AND ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MIGHT EXIST WITH ANY
MULTICELL STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 09/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.