[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060556
SWODY2
SPC AC 060556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
DGW 40 SSW MLS 15 NE MLS 25 S ISN 55 NNE BIS 30 E MCK 55 SW HLC 50
NNE LAA 20 ESE LIC 25 ESE DGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 S GBN 20 W INW 15
NNW GUP 30 ESE DRO 35 E ASE 45 NW LAR 45 NNW SHR 50 NNE HVR
...CONT... 80 NE DVL 30 SW GFK 60 NNE ATY 35 SSE RWF 30 NW VOK 30 E
APN ...CONT... 40 NNE CLE 10 SSW BMI 35 N SZL EMP 40 NE AMA 50 S CVS
45 S ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LRD 10 NNW ALI
45 NNE PSX 30 W BPT 15 SSW 7R4 ...CONT... 35 SSE TLH 30 NNE CTY 15
NW SSI 45 ENE SAV 20 S CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS FORECAST ACROSS CANADA
THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL TIER OF STATES.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY
MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD TOWARD THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES WITH WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.  LEE TROUGH WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SLIGHT RISK AREA AS RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE RETURNS NWWD BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY
AXIS NEAR TIME OF PEAK HEATING.  WHEN COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND WRN EXTENSION OF WARM
FRONT...LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO
WRN NEB/NERN CO.

FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.  ADDITIONAL STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE/ WILL
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LLJ
ENHANCES ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA N OF WARM FRONT.


...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY...

MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG/ ALONG/S OF PORTIONS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE SWD DISPLACEMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM STRONGER MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..MEAD.. 09/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.