[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051730
SWODY2
SPC AC 051729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 WNW DSM 30 NNE HLC 40 NNE GCK 30 SE LAA 15 WSW LHX
25 NNE COS 20 ESE 4FC 55 ENE CAG 40 ENE RWL DGW 20 SSE CDR 15 ESE
VTN 15 WSW BKX 25 NNE STC 45 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 30 N NIR 30
NNE HOU 25 SW BTR 35 ENE MOB 15 SSE MAI 20 N VLD 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE
30 E ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 NE APN HTL 35 S
MKE 25 ENE BRL 35 ENE MKC 25 E ICT 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF
...CONT... 95 WSW TUS 30 SE PHX 20 SE INW 15 SW FMN 40 SSE MTJ 55 SW
CAG 50 SW RWL 45 WSW CPR 55 S GCC 25 W PHP 35 S ABR 35 WNW BRD 60 N
ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA AND EXTENDING INTO NWRN MT
WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH TRAILING PORTIONS BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.


...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL REGION OVER THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 WWD UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FROM PARTS OF
ERN CO...SERN WY INTO NWRN KS AND WRN NEB. THOUGH ONLY MODEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...STRONG VEERING PROFILES BETWEEN 0-3 KM AGL
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER
SERN WY INTO WRN NEB ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS. STORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. BY EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A
MCS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS LIFT AND
WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.


...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

STRONGEST FORCING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM
APPROACHING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. STORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. DURING THE DAY
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN N OF THE U.S. BORDER. INITIAL STORMS SHOULD THEREFORE
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISSIPATES...THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE. A PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS SUPPORTING
MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO
CANADA. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POST FRONTAL...AND THESE MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. STILL...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY MULTICELL
STORMS THAT CAN REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.