[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050528
SWODY2
SPC AC 050527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW
ANJ 30 ESE FOD 35 SSW HLC 15 ESE GCK 25 WNW LBL 45 WNW EHA 35 W AKO
15 NNW SNY 40 NNW RWF 80 ENE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 25 N NIR
30 W BPT 25 S BTR 10 SSE MOB 15 NNE PFN 20 W VLD 40 NNW SAV 20 N CRE
30 E ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 WSW TUS 55 W GUP
10 ESE FMN 50 NE DRO 35 SSW 4FC 20 W LAR 15 WNW DGW 45 ENE 81V 65 N
PHP 25 SW ABR 45 SSE FAR 10 N INL ...CONT... 80 NNE APN 20 E DBQ 45
NE FNB 45 NNW P28 15 WSW PVW 35 SE CNM 65 WNW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD
ACROSS ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH TRAILING
BELT OF MODEST TO STRONG WLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES INTO NRN PLAINS. A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM IS
FORECAST FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WITH SWWD EXTENSION OF
THIS BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO.  THIS PORTION OF
FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO FALLING PRESSURES OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES.

...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM WI
INTO NEB AND PERHAPS KS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING
THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ.  THEREAFTER...COMBINATION
OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NRN/CNTRL WI INTO WRN KS.

SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING ALONG SRN FRINGE OF CNTRL CANADIAN TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FROM THE UP OF MI SWWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO ERN CO AND
WRN KS.  LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS WITH 30-40 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE CONSIDERABLY MORE LOW-LEVEL
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR A FEW SUPERCELLS INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAY SUSTAIN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/KS WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS.

..MEAD.. 09/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.