[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041724
SWODY2
SPC AC 041723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE
ELO 20 SSE DLH 30 NW MKT 10 ESE EAR 40 ENE GLD 15 NNW GLD 45 SSW IML
35 ENE SNY PHP 45 E DIK 70 NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 20 ESE PRC
40 SE CNY 35 SSW RWL 45 WSW CPR 35 S WRL 35 NW JAC 27U 40 W MSO 95 N
3TH ...CONT... 80 NE CMX 25 SW LSE 40 W HUT 55 NNW CDS 35 N BGS 20
SSW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PFN TLH 20 W
AYS 25 S CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 50 NE LFK 25
WSW LIT 55 NE LIT 40 S JBR 20 SW UOX 10 SSW LUL 20 WSW MOB 20 SW
PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NCNTRL US WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM ND INTO CNTRL WY ON MONDAY. A
PLAINS SFC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM A SFC LOW IN ERN ND.
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S F WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN ND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC TROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...A LINEAR MCS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. IF A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS MONDAY
EVENING AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MULTICELLS AND EMBEDDED
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE RELATIVELY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT WOULD BE
ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL OR SQUALL-LINE CAN FORM. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL US MONDAY WITH A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH NEB INTO WRN KS. AS DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND ERN WY WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD
INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND
GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE PLAINS...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY AID THE
FORMATION OF HAIL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
ACROSS NEB AND WRN KS THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUGGESTING THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 09/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.