[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040551
SWODY2
SPC AC 040550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW
CMX 20 SSW HSI 25 SSE MCK IML 15 NW PIR 55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GBN 35 ESE IGM
30 NE GCN 75 NW GUP 40 NNE 4BL 15 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 35 SW DEN 45
ENE DEN 20 NW SNY 45 NNE CDR 35 ENE 81V 35 W SHR 20 SE BIL 25 NNE
BIL 75 WSW GGW 70 NE HVR ...CONT... 115 ENE CMX 30 NNE ALO 40 N P28
40 ESE AMA 40 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AQQ 25 S AYS 30
SW CHS ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 30 NNE POE 55 SSW JBR 20 S DYR 45 NW MSL
20 N LUL 40 SSE MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN
SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ERN BC/SK INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT
TRANSLATES ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL CANADA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 
ACCOMPANYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONCURRENTLY
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MT AND ND WITH A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
FORECAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE INTO NWRN ONTARIO WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO WRN NEB AND
ERN CO/WRN KS.

...ERN DAKOTAS/MN SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

A PLUME OF QUITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM/ ATOP
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN ND/NRN MN SWWD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG.  SOME DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
INTO WRN KS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  LARGE-SCALE
FORCING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN TROUGH COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  WITH TIME...EXPECT THAT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER CAP ALONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST OVER ERN ND INTO NRN MN WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FORECAST. 
HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.  SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM SHIFTING INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR SUGGEST A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AS FAR SW AS CNTRL/SWRN NEB AND
NWRN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 09/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.