[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030530
SWODY2
SPC AC 030529

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 65 E SOW
35 WSW FMN 10 SW GJT 35 WNW CAG 30 NNW LAR 55 WNW CDR 45 E 81V 40 N
81V 25 NNW SHR 20 ENE COD 45 ESE JAC 55 NE MLD 40 WNW PIH 45 NW SUN
75 S S80 20 SSW S80 20 SE 3TH 75 WNW CTB ...CONT... 100 N CMX 25 W
CWA 25 SSW VOK 45 ENE ALO 20 E FOD 25 E SPW 15 N OTG 20 S BKX 50 W
YKN 40 E AKO 20 W LIC 15 N PUB 25 NNE TAD 40 SSW LAA 25 N LBL 15 NE
DDC 25 W SLN 30 SSW BIE 25 WNW FNB 15 WSW FLV 30 SSE TOP 40 SSW PNC
15 WSW FSI 35 E ABI 30 E JCT 20 NE HDO 30 NNW NIR 45 S VCT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PFN 30 SW AYS
20 SE SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EWD PROGRESSION OF BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL CANADA SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES.  WITHIN
THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND AND SRN SK/MB...WHILE STRONGER
UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN
BC/AB SWD INTO WA/ID PNHDL AND NRN MT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD DISTURBANCE
WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN ND INTO SRN MB. 
MEANWHILE TO THE W...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER ERN MT ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.


...NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS NRN MN...

A PLUME OF VERY STEEP /8-9 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE 60S WILL RESULT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH
EML WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOST
UNSTABLE AIR.

IT APPEARS THAT BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED...SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER SRN MB/NWRN ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD
LOCALLY ERODE CAP.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LEE
TROUGH FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL SD WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER.  A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY.  A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FORECAST VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER 
THREAT.

FINALLY...STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MT
WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  IF STORMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP AND
BECOME SUSTAINED...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL/HIGH WINDS.

..MEAD.. 09/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.