[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031728
SWODY2
SPC AC 031727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 E U17
30 NW CAG 50 SSE CPR 65 NE DGW 40 E 81V 25 ENE 4BQ 50 SW MLS 40 SE
BIL 30 NW WRL 25 W LND 40 WSW BPI 35 NNE BYI 35 NW BOI 25 WSW BKE 25
S ALW 20 SSE GEG 95 N 3TH ...CONT... 65 ENE CMX 40 NE EAU 25 WSW MKT
20 N FSD 40 SSW MHE 50 WNW LBF 20 S AKO 35 S LIC 10 ENE LHX 25 S LAA
15 SW GCK 25 NE RSL 10 NNE LNK 25 SSW FOD 40 WSW ALO 40 W CID 15 SW
OTM 30 NNW SZL 35 SSE CNU 40 SW ADM 40 S SEP 15 NE AUS 10 S PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 NE BTR
35 ENE MCB 25 W SEM 40 NNE MCN CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. AS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SD...ERN WY AND NRN CO WITH THE CONVECTION
SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS REMAINING CAPPED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
CIN ABOVE 100 J/KG AND 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12C ACROSS MOST OF
THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NRN PLAINS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. IF
ENOUGH ASCENT CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD INTO MN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CAP INVERSION MAY PROBLEMATIC
MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

AT THE MID-LEVELS...A JET MAX LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
WRN DAKOTAS. IF STORMS INITIATE...THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE
THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MARGINALLY
SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE
STEEPEST.

IF THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS SOONER THAN EXPECTED...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WOULD BE GREATER. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
A SLIGHT RISK WHICH MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.