[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021727
SWODY2
SPC AC 021726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CTY DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 25 N GGW
75 NE LWT 20 N BTM 65 E BKE 50 SW BKE 70 NNW BNO 65 SW PDT 20 WNW
PDT 50 SW GEG 25 NNE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE CMX 15 N JVL 30
ESE UIN 25 SSW HRO 35 SSW TXK 50 S SHV 35 SSE POE 35 ESE 7R4
...CONT... 15 SSE IPL 25 SE TRM 45 E DAG 20 N LAS 30 SW PUC 40 N CAG
10 W LAR 15 E CYS 10 N AKO 40 E LIC 45 N CAO 45 E 4CR 10 SW ROW 35
NE CNM 55 N MAF 10 SSW LTS 20 WNW END 15 S CNK 25 S MHE 55 NW ABR 30
ESE MOT 35 NNW MOT 65 NNE ISN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN MS VALLEY...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NRN ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
SHOULD DRIFT ENEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN MS VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING. 

WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
F. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS ASCENT INCREASES
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION...THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM INITIATION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
INITIATION WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NERN SD EXTENDING SEWD INTO SW MN AND
NRN IA. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CONCERNING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS
FORECASTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INTRODUCE
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE
2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IF SCATTERED STORMS INITIATE ACROSS THE
REGION...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT RISK WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL NOT UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.