[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020552
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE YUM 15 SW EED
30 E LAS SGU 45 ENE BCE 10 NW GJT 25 S CAG 50 SSW LAR 30 SE CYS AKO
45 NNW LAA 40 NW CAO 50 ENE LVS 60 WSW TCC 40 ESE 4CR 40 SW ROW 25
ESE CNM 20 NNW MAF 60 ESE LBB FSI 30 N OKC 15 SSE ICT 20 N SLN 30 E
HSI 20 SW OFK 35 NNW YKN 30 SSW ATY 45 SSW FAR 25 SW GFK 70 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNE CMX 20 W IMT
20 SE LNR 25 ENE BRL 30 NE SGF 30 SE FSM 20 NNE GGG LFK 40 WNW BPT
20 E GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 30 ESE
JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 50 NNE 3DU
45 SSW MSO 50 ENE BKE 50 N BNO 40 ESE RDM 10 ENE RDM 45 NNE RDM 10
NNE PDT 20 NNW PUW 40 SE 63S 40 N 63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO JAMES BAY...BETWEEN SLOW-MOVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO WRN TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN AB TO NRN SK...WITH TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
NRN HIGH PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST
OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL STRETCH SWD FROM THIS SECONDARY
LOW INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
PERSISTENT SSWLY LLJ AHEAD OF EVOLVING WRN CANADA TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN THE NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN LOW PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE 60S AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AND S OF
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED WARM SECTOR.

WHILE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS FORECAST INVOF SURFACE LOW AND
LEE TROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT THE EML AND NEGLIGIBLE OR POSSIBLY
SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN RIDGE AXIS WILL
SUPPRESS DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT N OF WARM FRONT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF MN/WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO IA.  HERE...WEAKER CAPPING ALONG ERN EDGE OF EML
COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ 
SHOULD SUPPORT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS.  THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL.

..MEAD.. 09/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.