[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011723
SWODY2
SPC AC 011722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 10 ESE PFN
TLH 35 SSW AYS 10 SSE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 SSW HDO
40 E SAT 50 S CLL 40 NE HOU 25 S LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 50 WSW GTF
25 SSE MSO 40 ENE S80 40 ESE ALW 45 NNW ALW 40 WNW GEG 40 NE 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 25 ENE GBN
30 SSE FLG 65 SSW 4BL 30 SW ASE 30 NNE 4FC 45 NNE CYS 40 WNW CDR 30
NW RAP 60 NNW REJ 45 WNW DIK 35 WNW P24 25 ENE MOT 45 NE DVL 10 SE
TVF 40 SSE BJI 15 E STC 25 SSE MKT 25 NE FOD 60 ENE OMA 15 WNW FNB
35 SSE TOP 25 E BVO 20 N END 35 NW GAG 30 NNE AMA 25 WSW PVW 25 ESE
HOB 45 W MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.  SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NWRN U.S. LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND EXTENSION OF LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND SWEEP
SEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  PREDOMINANT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAVE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE OZARKS NWWD INTO
NEB WHERE IT WILL SHIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB INTO SERN SD...

NAM MODEL DESTABILIZES AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE POOLED. THIS
MODEL GENERATES LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO AROUND 40 KT
EXTENDING NWD/NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SERN SD. 
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY PLACING AREA UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION
TO ENHANCE UVVS ACROSS THIS AREA IN NWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF RIDGE
AXIS.  MODEL ALSO GENERATES 3000-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AS WELL AS
35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALL FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  MODELS
INDICATE THAT STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THAT IF STORM
DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE ELEVATED.  THUS...HAVE LIMITED PROBABILITIES
DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.