[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 310622
SWODY2
SPC AC 310621

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 55 SE OLM
EUG 50 WNW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S LCH HEZ JAN MEI
TOI ABY 40 E CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW AFTER IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS EARLY TUESDAY.  

CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER/MORE PROMINENT BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHERN
STREAM...ACCELERATES MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.  IN ITS WAKE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
IMPULSE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN
STATES.

...GULF COAST...
PERSISTENT COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN/DEVELOP EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. 
SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LIKELY
WILL BE WEAK...AND WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTING FROM
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
POTENTIAL  FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW.

...FLORIDA...
PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...NOW SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY BE CONFINED
TO SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
LOCALLY ENHANCED.  THOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IN WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME TO THE SOUTH/EAST
OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH.

..KERR.. 10/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.