[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 311722
SWODY2
SPC AC 311721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI 10 W OLM 45
NW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE AAF 40 ESE SSI
...CONT... 65 SSE 7R4 30 S HEZ 40 SSW JAN 20 SE PIB 45 SSW PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GULF COAST/FL PENINSULA...

SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE LA
COAST AS UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
WEAKENS OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD.  A VERY
FOCUSED WIND SHIFT AND SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE THROUGH DAY1 INTO THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE DAY2 PERIOD.  NRN
PORTIONS OF TSTM LINE SEGMENT WILL TRANSLATE OFF THE LA/MS COAST
EARLY WITH INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

DOWNSTREAM...LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE SRN FL PENINSULA
TUESDAY.  LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTEN/WEAKEN PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...SPREADING NWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN GULF OF
MEXICO.

...PACIFIC NW...

POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
WA COAST.  IT APPEARS STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HOLDING OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 10/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.