[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 301735
SWODY2
SPC AC 301734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E
CRP 10 SSW NIR 35 NW COT 20 N DRT 35 SSW ABI 45 W SPS 20 S MLC 10
WNW DEQ IER 50 S LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 35 ENE
VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW 6R6 45 N BGS 20
NNW PVW 45 ENE BGD 35 E CNU 25 SE BRL 25 NE MLI 15 SW DBQ 25 WSW ALO
10 ESE OTG 30 NNE RWF 15 S BFW 30 ESE CMX 30 N APN 25 SSE OSC 45 SSW
JXN 25 SSE MVN 60 ENE PBF 45 NNE HEZ 50 SE BVE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND INTO DAY TWO AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.  VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS TX
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO
OK/W TX.  THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE STEADILY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ERN 2/3 OF TX...
THOUGH COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT
FROM OK/AR NEWD.

FURTHER S INTO TX...RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S/ COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES AT
MID-LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY
AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCESSIVELY
STRONG...LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS
SPREADING EWD ATOP THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY
VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN 2/3 OF TX -- MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  INTENSITY OF CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT --
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS AIRMASS SLOWLY BECOMES LESS
UNSTABLE.

..GOSS.. 10/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.