[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 290542
SWODY2
SPC AC 290541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLI 25 NNW DLS
50 ENE EUG 40 WSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR MHN EAR LNK SDA
10 ESE LWD 45 SSE IRK TBN FLP HOT TXK FTW PVW 10 NNW RTN U17 U24 DPG
MLD WEY BIL 10 NNW GCC CDR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IN BETWEEN...A LOW
AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC REGIME IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SUNDAY...BEFORE BROAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE PACIFIC
COAST STATES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  

IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE BROADER
SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE IT
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO THE
DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD
FRONTAL SURGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRECEDING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 

REGARDLESS...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST INTO LARGE HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL REMAIN SLOW TO WEAKEN.  THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY
MINIMIZING OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IF THIS OCCURS...
ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD AT LEAST BE SUPPORTIVE OF
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUNDAY
EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

..KERR.. 10/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.