[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 291704
SWODY2
SPC AC 291703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR MHN EAR LNK SDA
10 ESE LWD 45 SSE IRK 30 NNW POF 10 SSE JBR 15 SSE GLH 15 SW SHV FTW
PVW 35 NNW LVS U17 U24 DPG MLD WEY BIL 10 NNW GCC CDR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING INTO PAC NW EARLY SUNDAY. 
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ON W COAST...SRN PORTION OF S/WV TROUGH
DIGS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 70KT NWLY MID
LEVEL JET MOVING THRU 4-CORNERS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN GREAT LAKES
 TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING. SRN PORTION
OF FRONT WILL SLOW AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SURFACE RIDGE GULF COAST PERSISTS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS TX INTO LOWER MO VALLEY THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD ON 25-30KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE
60S TX RANGING DOWNWARD TO THE 50S SWRN MO.

WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH DIGGING S/WV NOT ENTERING THE
PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE PERSISTENT WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION.  BY LATE AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG WITH LIMITED
CIN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... MOST LIKELY
VICINITY  AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SWRN MO INTO NRN OK. 
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT ALONG WITH 7C/KM LAPSE
RATES FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY EVENING. 
PRIMARY THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL.

SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AS
STRONG UPWARD MOTION SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM OVER
ROCKIES.

..HALES.. 10/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.