[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261651
SWODY2
SPC AC 261650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 6R6 20 N FST
40 NNE CNM 30 NNE ROW 40 WSW CVS 30 NE CVS 15 NW PVW 25 SW ABI SAT
50 SE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ON DAY 2 WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGHS
OVER THE EAST AND WEST...AND A SW-NE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY UNDERCUTTING
SCNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS
TX ON THURSDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN BLANKETED BY A
COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESTRICTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT...GRADUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON THE FAR SWRN PERIPHERY OF
THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...ACROSS THE WRN/SWRN GULF OF MEXICO.


...SERN NM TO SRN TX...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE INDUCED BY LARGE
SCALE CVA ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TRANSLATING
SEWD FROM WEST TX DURING THE DAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND MOISTENING ATOP RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED
WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. NAM APPEARS TO PRODUCE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF COAST DURING THE DAY WHICH
RESULTS IN GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THUS...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE
AND OCCUR WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW.

..CARBIN.. 10/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.