[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 251704
SWODY2
SPC AC 251703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE 4BL 50 N GJT
20 NE CAG 35 SW LAR 15 WSW FCL 15 E COS 30 S LHX 35 SSE SPD 35 NE
BGD 55 W CSM 20 WSW LTS 45 NE ABI 10 NNE BWD 30 E JCT 25 SSE JCT 50
N DRT 40 NE 6R6 35 NE FST HOB 40 NE ROW 35 ENE 4CR 10 ENE ABQ 35 NE
GNT 45 NNE GUP 25 W CEZ 45 NNE 4BL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST REGIONS
SEPARATED BY A SHARP RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS NWD TO CNTRL
CANADA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN
AREAS...WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO NWRN TX.

...ROCKIES TO NWRN TX...
MODEST ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE UNDERCUTTING SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AXIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE...FIRST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CO AND NRN NM...THEN SPREADING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
WRN/NWRN TX WITH TIME. LATEST NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...INDICATING NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE
LOWER TX GULF COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS RAPID AIR MASS
MODIFICATION APPEARS UNREALISTIC GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
GFS/NAMKF AND ENS GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTING MUCH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN INTO S TX. THUS...WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST QG FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES INTO PARTS OF TX BY
EARLY THURSDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION.

..CARBIN.. 10/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.