[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 211726
SWODY2
SPC AC 211725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE AQQ 30 ENE AYS
60 WNW CHS 10 SE GSP 30 ENE TRI 40 N SSU 25 NW MRB 10 ENE ABE 55 SE
PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE DUG 40 NW SAD
30 WSW PRC 45 NE IGM 50 W PGA 45 S 4BL 45 N SAF 50 W CVS 30 W MAF 60
S P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN FULL SWING
SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AND
A RIDGE IN THE WEST.  A LEAD IMPULSE NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTN AS AN
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY.  AT THE
SURFACE...AN OCCLUSION WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...WITH NEW CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY AFTN.  THE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
OFF THE SERN SEABOARD. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS FL
AS HRCN WILMA BEGINS A TURN TO THE NE IN THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO.

...COASTAL NC/VA/MD...
12Z ETA HAS TRENDED N WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AND IS IN MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.  AS A
RESULT...STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS OPPOSED TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTN.  

THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PCPN SATURDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.  THIS WILL AFFECT AFTN HEATING AND LIKELY
DECREASE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGER HEATING MAY DEVELOP
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN NC.  BUT...THIS
REGION WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.  FARTHER
N...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER CLOUDS WILL DISSOLVE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION GIVEN EARLIER TIMING OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE.  

GIVEN THE TREND IN EARLIER TIMING/FARTHER N POSITION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT AS
HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS FAR ERN
NC NWD INTO COASTAL VA AND MD. THIS IS WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL CO-EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UVV ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF WEAK
INSTABILITY.

..RACY.. 10/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.