[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 210539
SWODY2
SPC AC 210538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE
EWN 10 WSW SOP GSO 25 W RIC 50 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY 30 ENE AYS
60 WNW CHS 10 SE GSP 30 ENE TRI 40 N SSU 25 NW MRB 10 ENE ABE 15 SSE
PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 40 NW SAD
30 WSW PRC 45 NE IGM 50 W PGA 45 S 4BL 45 N SAF 50 W CVS 30 W MAF 45
S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE OH VALLEY.  STRENGTHENING
MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM WITH FLOW INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 90KT
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS VA.  THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS WLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OVER SC/NC
BY MID DAY AS FLOW SLOWLY VEERS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS ZONE OF
STRONG HEATING WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE DEEPER AND MORE FOCUSED. 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1500J/KG ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  NRN LIMIT
OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE NWD EXTENT OF HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER SRN MD OR SRN
DE.

..DARROW.. 10/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.