[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 201636
SWODY2
SPC AC 201635

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE GPT LUL 45 NNW
TUP 30 SW OWB 45 S BMG 20 S DAY 25 NNE ZZV 15 NNE MGW 45 NE CHO 15 W
WAL 50 ESE WAL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN ON FRI
FAVORING A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS AND A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND.  IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY ON THU WILL
DAMPEN ACROSS THE OH/TN VLY ON FRI AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW REGIME.  THE WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY BEFORE STRENGTHENING LATER FRI NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF STRONGER ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND DEEP S FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

...OH/TN VLYS AND SERN STATES...
ADVECTION OF HIGHER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SERN QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH FRI AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF COAST.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW.  PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT SOMEWHAT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..RACY.. 10/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.