[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080558
SWODY2
SPC AC 080557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SAT OCT 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DUG 35 E PHX
35 W FLG 55 SW SGU 35 SSE ELY 25 SE SLC 30 SSW LAR 25 NNW AKO 35 SSW
MHN 20 WNW EAR 15 NNE HUT 40 S SPS 40 WSW BWD 25 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W AQQ 35 SSW TOI
20 WNW BNA 10 E SDF 20 ESE UNI 10 SSE CHO 30 SSW PSF 20 S PWM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE
TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.  WITH TIME...EXPECT A
LARGE CLOSED LOW TO EVOLVE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NRN NM BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER OVER THE E COAST
REGION...WHILE LEE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN
TROUGH.

...SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN REGION OF COOLING
ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF STRONG/DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH LEFT
EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED/CYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK.  THUNDER
THREAT SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY...AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM.

THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT IS SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST MODELS ATTM -- ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM
SERN CO/SWRN KS SWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND ADJACENT W TX.  AS LEE
SURFACE LOW MOVES SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL ADVECT MARGINAL MOISTURE NWD.  THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT
DEGREE OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
50S MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD YIELD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS.  SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE WIND FIELD VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM SLY TO
SWLY WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.

ATTM HOWEVER...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AND CAPPED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT TO ISOLATED/SUB-SEVERE STORMS.  FURTHER...WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST ONLY FROM
VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING -- I.E. NEAR AND JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING.

THIS REGION BEARS MONITORING...AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE FORECAST MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST...
MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE E COAST AND INTO THE TN VALLEY
REGION NEAR/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK/MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
 THOUGH PRECIPITATION -- ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- SHOULD
BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL.

..GOSS.. 10/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.