[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071725
SWODY2
SPC AC 071724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AQQ DHN LGC BLF
HGR MSV 20 S LEB 30 NNW EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM EED 10 N
NID 40 WNW TVL 40 NNW SVE 55 ESE RDM PUW 3TH 50 NNE MSO HLN MQM 50
NE MLD BPI RIW 10 ENE CPR 45 N ALS 45 SW DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL...GENERALLY WEST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO EAST CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT
THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND MAY OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL TYPE AIR MASS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST...ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE.

UPSTREAM...VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...IS PROGGED INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST LATER TODAY. 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH IMPULSE IN BELT
OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
STATES.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOWER LEVELS WILL WARM IN DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN WAKE OF PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.  FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. 
HOWEVER... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH IT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT IN TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS. 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO
EXIST FROM PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MOISTURE RETURN IS UNCERTAIN.  AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN APPEARS UNLIKELY
SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...STRONG
COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY OCCUR
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES
AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
 STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW MAY
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS.

..KERR.. 10/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.