[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 070524
SWODY2
SPC AC 070520

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 45 NW BHM 40 ENE
BNA 40 SSW LOZ 30 NE AVL 15 NW LYH 45 SSW MRB 35 E CXY 25 SSE PSM
...CONT... 15 N MLB 25 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW WMC 10 N BNO 45
ENE BKE 50 SSE 27U 35 W SHR 55 ENE RWL 20 WNW DEN 25 W ALS 15 WSW
FMN 55 SE U17 45 ENE MLF 25 NNE U31 70 NW WMC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM NEW ENGLAND SSWWD ACROSS THE E
COAST STATES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME --
PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SWD...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WEAKENS AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH -- FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ALONG THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

...MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...
THOUGH VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE E COAST
STATES THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF WEAKENING BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD YIELD A DEEP
MOIST/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE...DESPITE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT.

...INTERIOR ROCKIES...
COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST/SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THOUGH MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELD SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 10/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.