[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 061721
SWODY2
SPC AC 061720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW FHU 45 SSE PHX
60 WSW SOW SAD 10 NNW SVC 35 SSW ALM 50 SSE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S BVE 0A8 TYS LOZ
LUK 35 NNW ERI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS SURGED THROUGH THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL GENERALLY STALL TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY.  MODELS DO SUGGEST COLDER AIR WILL ADVANCE EAST
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY/WESTERN QUEBEC.  UPPER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT WESTERN PERIMETER OF HIGH-LEVEL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID/SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

TO THE WEST...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE POLAR WESTERLIES
IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH STRONGER BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES.  AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD
DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES.

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED BY WARM AND MOIST/MOISTENING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
HOWEVER...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...NOW
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA/ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...AS IT ADVECTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN WAKE OF RETREATING
SURFACE RIDGE.

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MOST SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK.  HOWEVER...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY PROVIDED BY  LINGERING
LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY WILL PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN TROPICAL
AIR MASS.

STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES.  HEATING IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT...WITH
70F+ DEW POINTS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH COULD
SUPPORT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.

...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT LIMITED
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR.. 10/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.