[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060529
SWODY2
SPC AC 060528

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PFN 15 SW AHN
25 SW SSU 15 W AVP 20 SW MPV 65 NE EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW FHU 45 SSE PHX
60 W SOW 55 ENE SOW 15 ESE ALM 25 NNE MRF 80 S P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.  THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE THU...THEN LIKELY SPLIT INTO TWO WAVES.  ONE PIECE WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY...WHILE ONE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH.  THE SRN DISTURBANCE WILL ACT TO DISLODGE THE LARGE
SCALE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN
STATES FRI NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EWD INTO THE ERN STATES.  THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST
WITH TWO REGIONS OF PRIMARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...ONE OVER THE SERN
ATLANTIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN DISTURBANCE...AND ANOTHER
OVER NEW ENGLAND TIED MORE TO THE UPPER OH VLY SYSTEM. THE SERN LOW
WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SAT.

...COASTAL SE...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL SERN STATES ON FRI.  IF THERE IS ANY HEATING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM SRN GA INTO SERN NC.  ENHANCED SLY
FLOW ALOFT WITHIN ERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW ATOP SELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE AFTN.  THIS
WILL GIVE RISE TO LOW PROBABILITIES OF ISOLD TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS
OR A WET MICROBURST.  OTHERWISE...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 10/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.