[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 021714
SWODY2
SPC AC 021713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT 60 WNW AUS
50 ENE CLL 40 SE POE 15 NNE MOB 10 ESE DHN 50 SSW AGS 10 S SOP 75
ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N 4OM 45 E GEG 40
SW 3DU 30 N BZN 40 ENE WEY 25 E JAC 15 N EVW 35 N DPG 50 SSW EKO 20
SE SVE 55 WNW ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 40 SSW
PRC 40 NE GCN 25 SE U17 25 SSW MTJ 35 NNW ALS 15 SSE PUB 35 NE CAO
25 WSW DHT 25 SE TCC 50 N ROW 30 NNE ELP 55 SSW ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 185 NNW BUF 20 W MBS
25 NE JVL 20 NE ALO 15 SW FOD 35 NNE SUX 20 SW BKX 35 ENE ABR 25 N
FAR 45 SSE RRT 55 NNE INL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. 
WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE FLOW REGIME...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WIND MAXIMA CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST WILL
MOVE THROUGH MEAN TROUGH BASE AND THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS...NEXT UPSTREAM SPEED/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
DIG SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO MEAN TROUGH BASE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL
ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT
SAGS SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NEWD EXTENSION OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS OF A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS NOW
AS FAR N AS ERN SD AND SWRN MN.  PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER MOISTENING OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WI WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 60S MONDAY.  THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC
HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ S OF
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING TIME OF STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING.  DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW
SURFACE-BASED STORMS...HOWEVER BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT
ALONG/N OF FRONT.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN N OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE AIR MASS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL.  NOCTURNAL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 10/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.