[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020549
SWODY2
SPC AC 020548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSW GBN 40 SSW
PRC 40 NE GCN 10 SSW U28 45 NNE GJT 40 ENE GUC 20 NE PUB 45 NNE LAA
45 WSW HLC 50 NNE DDC 25 ESE DDC 45 SSE LBL 50 E TCC 50 N ROW 30 NNE
ELP 55 SSW ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT 60 WNW AUS
50 ENE CLL 40 SE POE 15 NNE MOB 10 ESE DHN 50 SSW AGS 10 S SOP 75
ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 185 NNW BUF 20 W MBS
25 NE JVL 35 SSE RST 20 ESE FRM 15 S OTG 20 SW BKX 35 ENE ABR 25 N
FAR 45 SSE RRT 55 NNE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N 4OM 45 E GEG 40
SW 3DU 30 N BZN 40 ENE WEY 25 E JAC 15 N EVW 15 ENE DPG 60 WSW ELY
20 WNW TVL 60 WSW CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN STATES DEEPENS. INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SWD TOWARD THE NRN GRT BASIN.  AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD IN WAKE OF THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE...REACHING THE UPPER GRTLKS-UPPER MS VLY-CNTRL PLAINS
LINE BY EARLY MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. 

...UPPER MS VLY/UPPER GRTLKS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND GRTLKS REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  BY MONDAY
AFTN...SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. 
AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE
BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN CAPPED VCNTY THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. 

MEANWHILE...INHIBITION WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/NRN MN EWD THROUGH NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI.  IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING CAN OCCUR TO COMPENSATE WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE...SURFACE
BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN/EVE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL /AOB 30 KTS/...SUGGESTING THAT
MAINLY MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE FAVORED WITH POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HOWEVER...WILL BE FOR
POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY
INCREASES AND IS ENHANCED WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT
H25 JET OVER ONTARIO.  MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL.  

THOUGH THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN A STRONG
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL RUNS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHETHER
STORMS WILL BE MAINLY POST-FRONTAL OR SURFACE BASED.  AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ATTM.

..RACY.. 10/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.