[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 011720
SWODY2
SPC AC 011719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ANJ MBS 20 WNW
TOL 10 WNW CMH 30 NNW HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 NW BNA 55 SSW JBR 30 NNW HOT
25 W FYV 25 NE CNU 30 WSW FOD 55 NNW EAU 130 N CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW 63S 40 WSW GEG
35 E PUW 15 ESE MSO 35 NW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 55 WSW GCC 35 NE RKS 40 S
SLC 40 W ELY 15 WNW U31 25 NNE LOL 60 SSE 4LW 55 E MHS 75 SW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BRO 40 ESE COT
40 S AUS 45 ENE CLL 40 S SHV 10 W HEZ 10 NNW GPT 70 SSE MOB
...CONT... 40 SSW PFN 40 NE AYS 10 NNW OAJ 65 NNE HSE ...CONT... 110
S GBN 25 NW SOW 35 W 4SL 45 SE SAF 40 S 4CR 35 SSW ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W SUNDAY...LARGELY DUE TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS
AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  FARTHER E...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS WILL OPEN AND DE-AMPLIFY AS IT IS
EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
AND NRN ROCKIES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY PUSHING MORE SLOWLY
SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.  A FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH APPROACH OF ERN
PACIFIC SPEED MAXIMA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...UPPER MIDWEST INTO WRN GREAT LAKES...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
GRADUALLY RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH 60 F
DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS S-CNTRL KS.  SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ ALONG/E OF
WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACK SHOULD AID IN A CONTINUED
NWD/NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS
REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT
APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD
OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ALONG NOSE OF LLJ WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...LOCAL CLOUD BREAKS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES
WILL APPROACH 1000-2000 J/KG.

EXPECT TSTMS TO INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NERN MO...ERN
IA AND IL AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4 KM WITH 25-35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER.

..MEAD.. 10/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.