[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010534
SWODY2
SPC AC 010532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW 63S 40 WSW GEG
35 E PUW 15 ESE MSO 35 NW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 55 WSW GCC 35 NE RKS 40 S
SLC 40 W ELY 15 WNW U31 25 NNE LOL 60 SSE 4LW 55 E MHS 75 SW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E ANJ 45 W MBS 40
W TOL 10 WNW CMH 30 NNW HTS 30 WNW JKL 25 NW BNA 25 W DYR 40 ESE HRO
15 WNW FYV 25 NE CNU 30 WSW FOD 55 NNW EAU 130 N CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 S GBN 25 NW SOW
35 W 4SL 45 SE SAF 40 S 4CR 35 SSW ELP ...CONT... 30 SW BRO 40 ESE
COT 40 S AUS 45 ENE CLL 10 S SHV 45 N HEZ 10 NNW GPT 65 S MOB
...CONT... 40 SSE AQQ 30 S FLO 10 NNW OAJ 65 NNE HSE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS NWD THROUGH THE ERN PARTS OF THE U.S.  NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST
MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER TRACKING ACROSS NRN CA TO THE NRN GRT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
 DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL
ACCELERATE NEWD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY.  

AT THE SURFACE...WELL-ESTABLISHED SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE NWD THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN.  A
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH...WILL
SETTLE SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN GRT BASIN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

...NRN GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W...
INCREASING BANDS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN GRT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN W PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGH. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE RESPONSE TO INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PWATS WILL BE FARTHER S AND
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL.  DESPITE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR/FLOW...SCANT INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE WITH RESPECT TO PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
SEVERE TSTMS.

...PLAIN/UPPER MS VLY...
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS/CORN
BELT AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE AS ASSOCIATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ARE MAXIMIZED DOWNSTREAM.  STRONGEST DCVA WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT HAVE RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY
IN WAKE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THUS...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 
BEHIND THE IMPULSE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT...AIR MASS WILL
BE UNSTABLE...BUT DOWNWARD MOTION AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

..RACY.. 10/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.