[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 300544
SWODY2
SPC AC 300543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW HQM 20 ENE PDX
40 SE PDX 40 W RDM 30 ESE MFR 55 W EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO 15 E CRP PSX BPT
25 W 7R4 35 SSW HUM 60 SSE HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LATEST NAM/GFS AND NCEP SREF ALL INDICATE STRONG...LOWER AMPLITUDE
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  ANY PHASING OF POLAR LOW...DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF HUDSON
BAY...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC...OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
SHORT-LIVED.  BY 12Z THURSDAY...LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED EAST OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.  MODELS SUGGEST POLAR LOW WILL
LINGER UPSTREAM...OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MIGRATES OFF THE PACIFIC INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES 
AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
UNLIKELY...EXCEPT PERHAPS OREGON COASTAL AREAS INTO THE CASCADES
LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING INLAND.  THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ENVIRONMENT MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PERHAPS
WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE
PRESENCE OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY.  ONE OTHER EXCEPTION COULD BE THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
GREAT LAKES...POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SHORES...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC COOLING.

..KERR.. 11/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM