[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 280645
SWODY2
SPC AC 280644

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
JAX AGS SPA MRB BWI 40 SE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BVE GZH TYS
CAK 50 NNW ERI ...CONT... 50 NNW BTV GFL ALB 25 S PSF 45 E ACK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN... BUT
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE U.S. WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IMPULSES
COMPRISING LARGE SCALE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH ARE FORCED
NORTHEASTWARD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES ACCELERATING OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC... THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.

WHILE REMNANTS OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ARE PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC...LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING...OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 12Z TUESDAY...IS PROGGED NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  THOUGH MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLE WITH MAGNITUDE AND RATE
OF PROGRESSION...FLOW IN BASE OF SOUTHERN IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN STRONG. MID-LEVEL JET CORE MAY REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 70-90
KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS IT NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  UPPER FEATURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATELY
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...EAST COAST...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND 
DEEP LAYER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SATURATED PRE-FRONTAL PROFILES WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND
PROVIDES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HOWEVER...EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR OF UNCERTAIN
SURFACE HEATING...NAM/NAM BKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES WILL
BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. THIS IS FORECAST IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATELY STRONG MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW....WITH RATHER
LARGE...CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  LOW-LEVEL
PROFILES SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA.

TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS IT FINALLY SURGES INTO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT BULK OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR TUESDAY
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL
LINE...SPREAD TOWARD COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 11/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM