[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 281728
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
SSI 25 NW SAV 20 NW CLT 15 WSW MRB 15 WSW BWI 25 E GSB 50 SE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSS 40 W ALB 30
NW EWR 45 E ACY ...CONT... 55 S PNS 25 S TOI 35 W TRI 35 N ZZV 60 N
CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 S OLM
25 SSE SLE 40 E OTH 55 WNW 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
SERN U.S....

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S...

BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ERN
GULF COAST REGION WHERE 60S SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED TO THE
CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AS CYCLONE GRADUALLY FILLS AND
WEAKENS NORTH OF THE BORDER.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HOWEVER MOVE
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MORE FAVORABLE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.  IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG...WILL EVOLVE WITHIN OTHERWISE
WEAK LAPSE RATE...YET STRONGLY SHEARED...ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST
THINKING IS A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/OR BE
MAINTAINED ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. 
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.  HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR THIS OCCURRENCE WILL BE INTERIOR SECTIONS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 11/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM