[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 271727
SWODY2
SPC AC 271726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
7R4 30 SE HEZ 15 WSW UOX 35 SSE PAH 25 NE MVN 40 W LUK 15 E LOZ 30 W
AVL AHN 10 WNW MCN VLD 55 WSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE GLS 10 NE IER
35 SW LLQ 40 SE BVX 25 S FAM 35 W BRL 45 NW LWD DNS 35 ESE BKX AXN
ELO 40 NNE GNA ...CONT... MSS UCA BGM DCA RDU 55 ESE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN
VLYS SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CYCLONE WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY EARLY MON ACROSS
THE CORN BELT THEN GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUE.  BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY ON MON...AWAITING THE
LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER JET STREAKS TO MIGRATE SEWD THROUGH TX. 
THIS IMPULSE AND THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE.  AT THE
SURFACE...LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VLY/UPPER MIDWEST MON. TRAILING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS AND DEEP S...REACHING THE
APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY 12Z TUE.

...GULF STATES AND TN VLY...
STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...GRTLKS REGION AND OH VLY ON MON.
 BUT...AS THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LAGGING WITHIN SRN PARTS OF
THE UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS EWD...THE GULF STATES AND TN VLY WILL
RESIDE IN AN INTENSIFYING ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ H5
JET...BOOSTING LARGE SCALE UVV MON AFTN.

MAINTENANCE OF A MODEST SLY LLJ WILL ADVECT THE MID-UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS JUST OFFSHORE NOW...AS FAR N AS THE TN VLY BY MON AFTN. 
THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK OWING TO WARM
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE.  BUT...MODEST HEATING
AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE UVV WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  

TSTMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM PARTS OF MS INTO
NRN AL/MIDDLE TN BY MIDDAY MON.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH FOR ISOLD TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  ORIENTATION OF THE 2-8KM MEAN
WIND WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT A MIXED-MODE
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND DISCRETE CELLS IS LIKELY. 

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DEVELOPING NORTHWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION WITH THE DAMAGING
WIND/ISOLD TORNADO THREATS.  FORCING MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AFTER
DARK FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BEFORE BEGINNING TO SPREAD TOWARD
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

...MIDWEST AND OH VLY...
A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SWD
INTO THE WRN GULF STATES EARLY MON.  STRONG DCVA AND STRONG DEEP
SSWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY DURING
THE DAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION.  THE LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IND...WRN/CNTRL KY BY LATE AFTN...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT.  LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND COULD BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE BY THE CONVECTION...PRODUCING ISOLD AND
SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS
THE OH VLY WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST. FARTHER N...POTENTIAL FOR A SHALLOW-SURFACE STABLE LAYER MAY
MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 11/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM