[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 250632
SWODY2
SPC AC 250631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE
CRP 25 WNW VCT 45 SW CLL 30 S LFK 20 SSW MSY 65 S BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BLI 30 ESE AST
20 ESE OTH 50 WNW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI JAC 10 ESE RWL
GUC 40 ESE FMN PGA CDC ENV BYI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LRD JCT SPS 20
NW BVO 15 WNW TOP 25 WNW CDJ FAM MKL 10 S SEM 45 SSE PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT/SAT EVE ACROSS TX/LA
COASTAL AREAS....

DEEP...COLD CORE LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN BRANCH OF
POLAR WESTERLIES...IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION.  MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY
ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY...AND...BY EARLY SATURDAY...
BROADER SCALE POLAR VORTEX WILL BECOME CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES...ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG PACIFIC JET IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S...SUPPORTING AN
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT NOSES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FORCING A COUPLE OF DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
INTO CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE LATTER PAIR...WEAKENING SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW/SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MODELS SUGGEST RAPID
MODIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS ALL BUT...PERHAPS...PARTS
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.  STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW TONGUE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL
MODIFYING...THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD GENERATE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY. 
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT
OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER AREAS INLAND
OF THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST MAY BE BASED ABOVE SHALLOW
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIMITED.

IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL APPEARS BETTER FOR
STORMS ROOTED IN MORE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER/DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AT
12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER FORCING
THROUGH THE DAY.

...GREAT BASIN...
STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF DIGGING JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...
GENERALLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND.

..KERR.. 11/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM