[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
BRO 45 WNW NIR 10 W BAZ 20 SW UTS 30 S LFK 20 SSW MSY 65 S BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BYI JAC 10 ESE RWL
GUC 40 ESE FMN PGA CDC ENV BYI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DRT 55 SW SJT 20
S END 40 SSW MHK 30 E OMA 25 WSW MLI 15 S SPI 30 NW HOP 30 SE MKL 20
SSW MEI 50 S PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX
EWD TO THE LWR MS VLY...

...CNTRL/ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL DEAMPLIFY TONIGHT...PHASE
WITH THE NRN STREAM...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AS IT
ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.  SURFACE WARM FRONT...NOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS S
TX AND THE WRN GULF BASIN...WILL REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. 

A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX
SATURDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD MODEST INSTABILITY.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  

AS THE LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN TX TO
THE LWR MS VLY.  THIS MAY TEMPER THE NWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS/WARM FRONT...AND MOST TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE ROOTED
ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER.  MORE ROBUST TSTMS...HOWEVER...MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN/SRN EDGE OF THE MCS ACROSS THE MIDDLE-UPPER
TX COAST WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP.  STORM MODE SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LINEAR WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 
BUT...GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.  PRESENCE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO...
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONGER TSTMS MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO SRN LA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME.  THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION...HOWEVER.  THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

..RACY.. 11/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM