[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE
CRP 40 ESE LRD 20 W COT 20 W SAT 55 N VCT 20 NE LBX 35 SSE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF 30 SW FST
50 ENE BGS 40 ESE FSI 35 SSE MLC 20 NW TXK 40 WNW IER 15 SSW POE 35
ESE 7R4 60 SW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HQM 30 SE AST 60
ESE OTH 50 E MHS 70 WNW LOL 15 NNW BAM 30 NW ENV 30 NNW DPG 60 SE
U24 BCE 40 W SGU 10 E DRA 45 ESE FAT 35 W SAC 25 NNW UKI 70 WNW UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND
THE MIDDLE TX COAST...

...CNTRL/SRN TX...
UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL BAJA WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TURNS EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO TONIGHT/FRI.  GFS...NAM AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON TIMING OF THIS WAVE.  IT DOES APPEAR...
HOWEVER...THAT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM/NAMKF IS IN
MORE AGREEMENT WITH SATL TRENDS AND THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES.

THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BACK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WAVE...ADVECTING A MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER NWD.  BY
FRI AFTN...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE COMMON
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX BENEATH STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
 

INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
CONVECTION BENEATH THE CAP DURING MOST OF FRI ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS
OF SRN TX.  BUT...AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES...STRENGTHENING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE ROBUST TSTMS FRI EVE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS CINH GRADUALLY WEAKENS. 

GIVEN INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
WAVE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PRIMARILY FRI EVE/EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ALONG/JUST S OF THE INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS.  

GIVEN SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND OVERALL
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ATOP MODEST BUOYANCY...HAVE UPGRADED TO A
SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX FOR MAINLY FRI NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY.

..RACY.. 11/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM