[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 240602
SWODY2
SPC AC 240600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW MRF 30 SW FST
50 ENE BGS 40 ESE FSI 35 SSE MLC 15 NW TXK SHV 45 SE POE 65 SSE HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HQM 30 SE AST 60
ESE OTH 50 E MHS 70 WNW LOL 15 NNW BAM 30 NW ENV 30 NNW DPG 60 SE
U24 BCE 40 W SGU 10 E DRA 45 ESE FAT 35 W SAC 25 NNW UKI 70 WNW UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF RIDGING ACROSS THE
WRN STATES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE GULF COAST TO
THE MIDWEST AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES ATOP SURFACE-BASED
COLD/STABLE LAYER OVER THESE AREAS. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
SRN CA/NRN BAJA. LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INLAND AND EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY
BEFORE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ACCELERATING NEWD ACROSS SOUTH
TX FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

...TX...
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SWD OVER THE PLAINS WITH A
SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT LIKELY TO BE SITUATED FROM THE NRN/NWRN GULF
COAST WWD TO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIFT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF THE NRN MEXICO TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL RETURN OF GRADUALLY MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE
FRONTAL INVERSION. NAM AND NAMKF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF
COAST AND SOUTH TX APPEAR TO SUGGEST ONLY A MARGINAL SKIN LAYER OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THESE AREAS BENEATH A MID LEVEL CAP
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY...THE FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
APPEAR TO SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GUIDANCE OVER THE REGION APPEARS SUSPECT BASED ON LATEST
OBS OVER THE GULF AND THIS LEADS TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY STRONG FORCING AND
THE EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL CAP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IF TSTMS CAN TAP
POTENTIALLY GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND WIND WOULD INCREASE GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK. MODEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS
APPEAR TO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE MOVING OVER SOUTH TX AFTER
DARK. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED THAN IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BE INTRODUCED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..CARBIN.. 11/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM