[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 231741
SWODY2
SPC AC 231740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E NEL 30 W GON 15
S CON 15 W AUG 45 SSE HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ART 20 ESE ART
20 ENE SYR 15 NNW ROC 35 NW BUF 30 SE BUF 15 E JHW 30 N YNG 10 NNE
CLE 35 NW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW ANJ 20 W ANJ 35
W APN 20 W RQB 30 E SBN 15 WSW SBN 40 NW BEH 50 NE MTW 30 NNW MQT 80
N CMX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WHILE EMBEDDED POLAR VORTEX ROTATES CYCLONICALLY EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN QUEBEC THROUGH 25/12Z. 

MEANWHILE...WRN U.S. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WHILE SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WRN U.S./WRN CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. 

ONE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE -- A WEAK TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER
THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT AS IT SHIFTS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT THUNDER OFFSHORE...WITH A
LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW STRIKES AS FAR W AS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LOCATION OF WARM SECTOR.

...GREAT LAKES...
VERY COLD /-36 TO -38C/ MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR VORTEX
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINNING LATE IN
THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2. 
WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...RESULTING
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS.  

HOWEVER...AS POLAR VORTEX MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BACK WITH TIME
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES.  THIS SHOULD ACT
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WELL-ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT BANDS TO SOME
DEGREE OVER LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN DESPITE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES -- AND LIKEWISE LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING.

OVER THE ERN LAKES...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE
UNIFORM FROM THE WNW...AS 850 AND 700 MB LOWS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT
EWD JUST TO THE N OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...WITH THIS
WIND DIRECTION RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE
LAKES...THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE PLUMES
-- ALSO LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.

WILL MAINTAIN 10% THUNDER LINE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

..GOSS.. 11/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM